Throughout this election, many people have noted that Keir Starmer is being very careful as he tries to maintain Labour’s lead over Rishi Sunak. The saying about “carrying a ming vase” means someone is being extremely cautious to avoid making mistakes. This is what Starmer is doing as the election day on July 4 approaches.
But Starmer isn’t the only one being careful. Nigel Farage also has a big opportunity to change the political scene and shape the future of right-wing politics in the country. The difference between a big win for Reform and a big loss is very small. Even a tiny change in support for Reform could mean winning one seat or winning two dozen.
Farage could either have a big win or a big loss, and it’s all up to him now. If Farage succeeds next Thursday, he will be remembered as one of the most important British politicians of the last twenty years. But if he fails, like UKIP did in 2015, people will wonder why Farage couldn’t avoid making mistakes.
Last Friday’s BBC interview with Nick Robinson hurt the party’s momentum, as one senior Reform staffer admitted to me today. However, this party member insisted that the controversy hasn’t hurt Reform’s chances. I’m not so sure about that.
Polls this week show that support for Reform has stalled. Two polls today alone show a three-point drop in support for Farage’s party. And the party can’t afford this just days before the election. Yes, postal votes are already being sent in when Reform’s support was high, which helps Farage. But a three-point drop and a rise in Tory support could be the difference between winning a dozen seats and none, and between the Tories winning 150 seats or 80 seats.
A Conservative activist in a key marginal told me this morning that the Ukraine issue is helping them win back Tory-Reform voters. In just a few hours of talking to voters this morning, the Tory source said 15 of those wavering voters were “very receptive on Ukraine,” with two mentioning it without being asked. A Tory MP in a key Reform target seat said the Ukraine issue is definitely helping them, and concern about Farage’s NHS reform policy is also pushing voters back to the Tories.
Farage has six full days of campaigning left before the election. If he wants to become the main right-wing opposition to Labour in the next parliament, he needs to close the gap. Farage is undoubtedly a rare political talent. But unfortunately, that also means he has a unique talent for making mistakes.
The 8 Things Nigel Farage Needs to Do to Win
- Stay Focused on Key Issues: Farage should focus on issues that matter most to his supporters, like immigration, national sovereignty, and economic reform. Avoid getting sidetracked by less important topics.
- Avoid Controversial Comments: Farage needs to be careful with his statements. Controversial comments can alienate potential voters. He should stick to his main messages and avoid saying anything that can be used against him.
- Strengthen Party Unity: Keeping the party united is crucial. Farage should ensure that all Reform Party members are on the same page and avoid internal conflicts that can weaken their campaign.
- Effective Use of Media: Farage should use media effectively to reach a wide audience. Positive media coverage and a strong social media presence can help boost support.
- Engage with Voters Directly: Farage should spend as much time as possible talking directly to voters. Personal engagement can win over undecided voters and reinforce support among his base.
- Clarify Policy Positions: Clear and well-explained policies can help convince voters that Reform has practical solutions. Farage should make sure his policies on issues like the NHS are well understood and seen as beneficial.
- Capitalize on Postal Votes: Since postal votes are already being sent, Farage should encourage his supporters to vote early. This can help secure votes before any last-minute changes in public opinion.
- Respond to Criticisms: Any criticisms or negative stories should be addressed promptly and effectively. Farage should have clear responses ready to counter any negative press.
By focusing on these strategies, Nigel Farage can improve his chances of winning and becoming a significant force in British politics.
