With just 18 hours until the public heads to the ballot box, a new GB News people’s poll predicts that Sir Keir Starmer will secure the keys to Number 10. The latest poll results reveal Labour leading with 36% of the vote, followed by Reform UK in second place with 20%, and the Conservatives trailing at 16%. The Liberal Democrats hold 10%, the Greens 9%, and the SNP 4%.
Despite Labour’s lead, only 32% of voters believe Britain will be in safe hands under a Labour government. Notably, a plurality of 2019 Tory voters are split, with many desiring a more conservative party, while others prefer a more liberal direction or the status quo.
Professor Matt Goodwin, the pollster and academic behind this poll, highlights the lack of enthusiasm and strong support for any of the parties. He describes this as a “none of the above” election, characterized by record levels of distrust and lack of confidence in the political class. Voters are not only rejecting the Conservatives but also Labour, leading to potentially the lowest combined vote share for the two main parties since the modern two-party system began.
Support for Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, and the SNP is notably high. Goodwin also warns of a potentially significant voter apathy, with turnout possibly falling to the low 60s or high 50s.
Other pollsters present varying predictions, with some placing the Conservatives above 20%. The key takeaway is the potential for a highly disproportional election, reminiscent of the 1983 SDP scenario. This could result in many votes not translating into seats.
Goodwin predicts that if Labour wins, they might face significant challenges due to weak public support and ongoing economic issues. He warns of a potentially short honeymoon period for Keir Starmer, with public disillusionment likely to persist.
