According to the Refugee Council, up to 60,000 migrants who were supposed to be sent to Rwanda could be allowed to stay in the UK under Labour’s plans.
The charity also predicted that 27,000 more migrants will cross the Channel by the end of this year, adding to the number of asylum claims that a future Labour government would need to handle.
Sir Keir Starmer has promised to end Rishi Sunak’s plan to deport migrants to Rwanda as soon as Labour takes power.
This would mean that the 90,000 migrants who are currently waiting to be sent to Rwanda would instead go through the asylum system.
The Refugee Council said it is a “reasonable potential estimate” that about 70 percent, or 60,000 of these 90,000 migrants, would be granted asylum based on the countries they come from.
Between May 2023 and April 2024, 28,529 people arrived in the UK by small boats. Based on where they came from, it’s likely 73 percent of them could get asylum.
One-third of these arrivals were from countries with high asylum approval rates, like Sudan, Eritrea, Syria, Afghanistan, and Iran.
The Refugee Council suggested that Labour could start moving 90,000 migrants into the asylum system even before changing Mr. Sunak’s law. Section 30 of this law allows the home secretary to let migrants stay in the UK instead of deporting them.
Labour has been looking at this law and thinks they could use Section 30 to process asylum claims without needing new laws. The Conservatives might accuse Labour of giving migrants amnesty, while Labour says the Conservatives have already done this by keeping them in hotels.
Nearly 36,000 migrants are currently staying in hotels, costing £2.9 million a day. Labour’s Yvette Cooper has promised to end hotel use within a year to save money. However, Labour will face a growing backlog unless they stop the boats from crossing the Channel.
If migrant arrivals in 2024 follow previous years’ trends, about 40,300 will cross the Channel this year. So far, more than 13,000 have already crossed, higher than previous years. The Refugee Council predicts another 27,200 will arrive by the end of the year.
The Refugee Council warned that Labour will have a big challenge managing the high number of asylum seekers and the cost of housing them.
Enver Solomon from the Refugee Council said the next government must fix the broken asylum system, which has suffered from years of poor management.
Sir Keir Starmer ruled out a deal to send migrants back to Afghanistan, calling it unsafe. He also dismissed working with Iran’s government on a similar deal but said Labour would work with France to address Channel crossings.
A Labour spokesperson criticized the Conservatives for failing to manage the asylum system, resulting in a costly backlog. Labour plans to create a new Border Security Command to stop boats before they reach the French coast and clear the backlog with a fast-track system for safe countries, aiming to save taxpayer money.
